Hey there,

Four major data releases landed this week. CPI. Jobs. Consumer Sentiment. And the AAA national average gas price crossing $4.16 a gallon — up over a dollar in a single month.

They all point to the same thing: consumers are paying an involuntary tax at the pump, and that money is coming out of everywhere else.

Here's everything you need to know.

According to AAA's April 9th fuel price update, the national average hit $4.16/gallon — the highest since August 2022, and $1.08 more than a month ago.

For context: a 15-gallon fill-up now costs roughly $15–$20 more than it did in early March. For your tenants' customers — especially lower and middle-income households — that money disappears directly from discretionary spending.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2026 Consumer Price Index this morning. Headline inflation jumped from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March — the highest annual rate since April 2024. Gasoline surged 21.2% in a single month and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly price increase.

The nuance: core CPI (ex-food and energy) came in at just 2.6% annually — a tenth below forecast. Shelter inflation fell to its lowest since August 2021. The underlying economy is not running hot. This is an energy shock, not broad-based inflation — for now.

The number that matters most for your tenant base: real wages fell 0.6% for the month. Paychecks went up 0.2%. Prices went up 0.9%. Consumers are falling behind.

The March Employment Situation from BLS showed 178,000 jobs added — nearly 3x the 59,000 consensus forecast. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.

But: the three-month average sits around 68,000/month. February was revised to a loss of 133,000 jobs. Healthcare carried most of the weight. Long-term unemployment is up 322,000 over the past year. Labor force participation fell to its lowest since 2021.

This is not a collapsing labor market. But it's not a strong one either. It's stall speed — just enough hiring to hold the line.

The University of Michigan's April preliminary Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 47.6 — a record low. Below the prior all-time low of 51.7 set during the 1980 energy crisis. Down 11% from last month. Down 9% from a year ago.

Every demographic group moved lower. Every component of the index fell simultaneously.

One-year inflation expectations jumped from 3.8% to 4.8% — the largest single-month increase since April 2025. Long-run expectations rose to 3.4%, the highest since November 2025.

Important caveat: 98% of survey interviews were completed before the April 7th ceasefire announcement. The Michigan survey director noted that sentiment should improve once consumers gain confidence the supply disruptions are truly over. That's a potential turning point — but a fragile one. Crude oil remains near 2022 highs.

If you own a strip center, you almost certainly have restaurant tenants. Here's the honest picture.

According to Santiago & Company's 2026 Restaurant Industry Trends report, consumer confidence has declined 14 index points since 2023, and research shows a 10-point drop correlates with a 0.5–2% drop in restaurant traffic within two months. Only about one-third of restaurant brands posted positive comparable sales in 2025. Industry-wide traffic growth is projected at less than 1% in 2026.

But this isn't uniform. Restaurant Dive's market analysis tracked same-store sales across major public chains in Q3 2025: Chili's posted +21.4% comparable sales growth. Sweetgreen fell -9.5%. A 31-point gap between the best and worst performers in the same quarter. The dividing line is value — operators competing aggressively at the $10–$12 price pointare winning.

The standout growth category: Mexican and Latin limited-service concepts. Santiago & Company's transaction datashows purchase frequency at Mexican LSR chains increased more year-over-year than any other limited-service category. Cava continues to outperform. If you have a vacancy or are evaluating tenants, this category is operating from a position of relative strength.

One finding from McKinsey's restaurant research worth keeping in mind: when consumers cut back, most stay loyal to their usual restaurants — but order less, use more promotions, and trade down within the menu. The operators who quietly cut portion sizes to protect margins are risking the moment where a cautious customer becomes a permanently lost one.

A few direct takeaways:

Know your tenant mix. Service businesses — insurance, nail salons, medical, tax prep — and value-oriented food service are in a more defensible position right now than discretionary retail or full-price casual dining.

Evaluate decisions at today's rates. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.31% on Friday. The Fed is not cutting. Commercial mortgage rates are starting in the mid-5% range. Rate relief is not visible on the near-term horizon.

Watch the investment market. The Boulder Group's Q1 2026 Net Lease Research Report showed overall single-tenant net lease cap rates compressed for the first time in 15 consecutive quarters — one basis point, to 6.80%. Supply of available net lease properties fell 9.8% quarter-over-quarter. More buyers competing for fewer properties. Strip center cap rates run wider than NNN, but directional signals from that market often lead multi-tenant retail.

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