The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, August 7 that U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, badly missing the roughly 83,000 economists expected. It gets worse under the hood: May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs, and the three-month hiring average has slipped to just 20,000 jobs a month. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, but that's a function of people leaving the labor force — participation fell to 61.4% — not more people finding work. (full BLS release)

The sector detail that matters most for us: retail trade — including warehouses and merchandise retailers — shed 19,000 jobs last month. Local education also lost 50,000 jobs, which BLS attributes to seasonal-adjustment noise rather than a real structural shift.

Markets took this as a signal the Fed has more room to cut later this year. The 10-year Treasury, which had been sitting around 4.68%–4.69% earlier in the week, dropped to 4.65% on Friday. That's down from 4.75% at the end of July — a real move, even if it's not dramatic.

Here's the mechanic, plain and simple: your loan rate starts with the 10-year Treasury as the base, currently 4.65%, plus a lender spread. Right now we're seeing 175–225 basis points over the 10-year for most strip center refinances and acquisitions, depending on leverage, sponsorship, and asset quality. That puts typical conventional quotes in a 6.40%–6.90% range this week.

Worth noting: prime rate has held steady at 6.75% across multiple Fed meetings now. If you're carrying floating-rate debt tied to prime, this week's Treasury move didn't touch you directly — you're insulated either way. If you're pricing new fixed-rate debt, you caught a small tailwind. The fixed-vs-floating distinction is worth having on your radar heading into fall, especially with the Fed's next decision on September 16–17.

One more thread for owner-users and their buyers: a softer labor market tends to eventually filter into SBA 7(a) pricing. Not something to underwrite today, but worth watching if you're marketing to owner-user buyers this fall.

(This deal math is illustrative to frame the conversation — every transaction has its own sponsor, asset, and lender relationship that will move these numbers. Talk to your lender for actual terms.)

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Here's the other half of the story. Kimco Realty — one of the largest owners of grocery-anchored open-air shopping centers in the country — reported Q2 2026 results on August 4, and they were strong across the board: portfolio occupancy matched an all-time high at 96.4%, small-shop occupancy hit a record 92.9%, new leases signed at a 40.4% cash rent spread, same-property NOI grew 3.5% year-over-year, and management raised the dividend 12%. (Kimco's full release)

The detail that ties this whole episode together: on the earnings call, Kimco management said spending trends stayed positive across income groups, with middle-income household spending up 5.5% and low-income spending up 3.5%. That's a direct counterpoint to the jobs-data anxiety — the consumers filling shopping centers are still spending, even in a week the labor market wobbled.

A fair caveat: Kimco is a large, grocery-anchored, institutionally-managed national portfolio — it's a directional read on retail real estate health, not a direct stand-in for a privately-owned strip center here in San Antonio, Austin, or the Valley. But directionally, it says tenant demand and consumer spending are still showing up, even as the macro headlines get shakier.

Two things are true at once this week: the labor market is showing real cracks, and the largest players in our sector just posted some of their best numbers in years. Rates moved slightly in your favor as a result. If you're weighing a sale, a refinance, or a new acquisition, this is exactly the kind of week where it pays to have someone tracking both sides of that ledger. Reach out if you want to talk through what it means for your property specifically.

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Talk soon, Ray Kang, CCIM