As we head into 2026, the data continues to send a consistent message: the consumer hasn’t disappeared—but behavior has changed. Retailers are adjusting quickly, and retail real estate performance is increasingly determined by alignment with how people are actually spending today.

Here are the four themes that mattered most this week—and what they mean for retail property owners.

Holiday spending in 2025 increased roughly 4% year over year, according to coverage from ABC News and other holiday retail reports. On the surface, that looks healthy.

Underneath, the story is more nuanced.

Consumers spent more—but they did it strategically. Shopping started earlier. Promotions mattered. Lower-cost options won share. Adobe’s holiday data showed strong online activity around Thanksgiving and Black Friday, but demand was driven by value-seeking behavior, not excess confidence.

What this means for owners:
Centers anchored by value, off-price, and omnichannel retailers are outperforming. Traffic is showing up where affordability and convenience intersect—and that’s where rent durability is coming from right now.

As we move into 2026, one phrase keeps resurfacing in the data: the K-shaped consumer.

Analysis highlighted by Yahoo Finance shows higher-income households continuing to spend, while lower-income households face slower growth and more pressure. Consumer sentiment remains well below last year’s levels, and many households expect unemployment to rise.

That split is showing up clearly in retail performance.

Value-focused retailers outperformed, while discretionary concepts struggled. Even higher-income shoppers are trading down—not out of necessity, but caution.

What this means for owners:
Retail performance is becoming increasingly trade-area specific.

A simple but critical question heading into 2026:
Which side of the K does your trade area sit on?

Foot-traffic data from Placer.ai, summarized by Commercial Observer, tells a clear story about holiday 2025.

Brick-and-mortar retail didn’t surge—but it didn’t collapse either.

Mall visits were modestly higher on Black Friday and throughout the holiday season. That said, November traffic was still down year over year, and downtown locations underperformed.

The real differentiator was tenant mix.

Discount and dollar stores posted solid gains, while department stores and certain specialty retailers saw double-digit declines.

What this means for owners:
In this environment, steady is the new strong.

Centers built around everyday needs, value, and services are holding up well. Owners should lean into off-price, necessity-based, and experience-driven tenants—and be realistic about legacy department store boxes that may not return in their old form.

Retail saw another round of shake-outs in 2025. Reporting from CNN Business and CBS News shows more than 8,000 store closures across department stores, specialty retail, and select restaurant categories.

This isn’t just a failure story—it’s a consolidation story.

Weaker or over-levered brands are shrinking footprints, while stronger operators and non-traditional users continue expanding.

What this means for owners:
Every closure is both a risk and an opportunity.

While dark space pressures NOI in the short term, it also creates opportunities to re-tenant with discounters, grocers, gyms, medical users, and entertainment concepts that drive traffic and support sustainable rents.

Smart landlords are treating these moments as portfolio upgrades, not just vacancies.

Your rent growth doesn’t matter if your NOI isn’t growing.

Focus on the bottom line, not the asking rent.

We recently sold a retail center at 6330 De Zavala Road in Northwest San Antonio.

On paper, the property had some challenges:

But we reframed the narrative around value-add opportunity and aligned it with real market data showing:

We priced it strategically, told the story accurately, and created competitive tension.

The result:

Takeaway: When you frame the story correctly and leverage local market fundamentals, you create outcomes—not wait for them.

One belief I still see holding retail property owners back is the assumption that appreciation will take care of everything.

Over long periods, values have generally trended higher. But markets don’t move in straight lines—they move in cycles.

When a cycle resets, value rarely disappears overnight. It erodes quietly if it’s not actively managed.

Owners who protected and grew value through past cycles focused on:

The takeaway:
Cycles reset.
And value protection requires planning, not optimism.

That doesn’t mean panic. It means intention—understanding where your rents sit, which tenants perform in slower growth, and how your asset behaves across different parts of the cycle.

The consumer is still spending—but more carefully. Retailers are responding by prioritizing value and efficiency. And for owners, success in 2026 will come from alignment: between tenants, trade areas, and real consumer behavior.

If you’d like help thinking through tenant mix, lease strategy, or long-term positioning, you’re more than welcome to reach out. I’d be ecstatic to bring you something of value.

If you want a clearer understanding of where your strip center stands today — or what opportunities you might be missing — feel free to reach out.

I’d be more than happy to walk through it with you.

Thanks for reading. You’re always welcome to reach out with any questions or anything you need to better understand your investment. I’m here to help you make well-informed decisions with confidence.

— Ray Kang CCIM

Strip Center Investment Sales & Advisory