Welcome back to the Retail Weekend Wrap-Up — your weekly breakdown of the economic and retail news that impacts your investments, your tenants, and your bottom line.
This week's theme? The Great Disconnect. Consumer confidence is near historic lows… but consumers keep spending like nothing's wrong. Meanwhile, the retail industry is reshuffling — with closures making room for aggressive new growth. Let's break it all down.
The Economy: What's Hitting the Consumer
Layoffs Hit Their Highest January Level Since 2009
The Challenger Report dropped this week and it wasn't pretty. U.S. employers announced 108,000 job cuts in January— the worst January since the financial crisis. UPS, Amazon, and healthcare led the way. Hiring plans? The lowest for any January on record.
The ADP report backed it up — only 22,000 private sector jobs added in January. A very soft number.
Jobs Report Delayed — Again
We were supposed to get the official January jobs report from the BLS this Friday. We didn't. Another government shutdown kicked in on January 31st, delaying the release. This is the second shutdown in less than six months — and economic data is getting harder to trust with so many gaps.
Markets had expected 55,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.4%. Now we wait.
Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up… But Still Historically Low
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 in early February, up from 56.4 — better than the 55.0 economists expected. But the director of the survey said the overall level "remains very low from a historical perspective."
People are worried about eroding personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss. The one bright spot: one-year inflation expectations dropped from 4.0% to 3.5%.
The Big Disconnect: Confidence Is Down, But Spending Is Up
Here's where it gets interesting. Despite those gloomy sentiment numbers, consumers are still spending.
Mastercard said their 2026 outlook reflects healthy consumer spending, and their CEO noted tariff impacts have been absorbed across the ecosystem without hitting consumer wallets yet.
American Express reported retail spending up 10% and luxury retail up 15%, driven by younger and affluent shoppers.
So what do you make of a consumer who says they feel terrible about the economy but keeps swiping their card? That's the disconnect — and it's the #1 thing to watch. Because eventually, sentiment and spending tend to converge. The question is which direction.
Retail & Services: Who's Opening, Who's Closing
Store Openings Rising, Closures Falling — Value Wins
Coresight Research is projecting:
~7,900 store closures in 2026 → down 4.5% YoY (lowest in 3 years)
~5,500 new store openings → up 4.4% YoY
Leading openings: Dollar General, Aldi, Tractor Supply Leading closures: GameStop, Francesca's, Walgreens
The key CRE takeaway: space freed up by bankruptcies in 2024-2025 (Bed Bath & Beyond, Joann, Forever 21) is now getting backfilled. JLL's head of retail advisory noted that retailers are competing for strip center space with expanding food & beverage concepts like Raising Cane's and fitness studios like SoulCycle.
That's demand pressure on retail space — and that's good news for landlords and investors.
Saks Global Shuts Down 62 Off-Price Stores
Big closure news this week: Saks Global is closing 57 Saks OFF 5TH stores and all remaining Neiman Marcus Last Call locations. Only 12 OFF 5TH stores will remain.
This comes weeks after their Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing — $3.4 billion in debt after the failed Neiman Marcus acquisition. They're pivoting entirely to full-price luxury.
For CRE: This puts a meaningful number of retail boxes back on the market. Depending on location, that's either a challenge or an opportunity for repositioning with stronger tenants.
Aldi Announces 180+ New Stores in 2026
On the growth side — Aldi is on a tear.
180+ new store openings across 31 states in 2026
Entering Maine and Colorado for the first time
10 new stores in Phoenix
Converting 80 former Southeastern Grocers locations
$9 billion U.S. investment through 2028
3 new distribution centers (FL, AZ, CO)
One in three U.S. households shopped at Aldi last year. If you own or invest in grocery-anchored retail or strip centers, Aldi is one of the strongest demand drivers in the market right now.
Restaurants: Tough Year, But Tailwinds Building
The restaurant industry enters 2026 under pressure. Only about one-third of brands posted positive comp sales last year. Traffic is soft. Consumers are trading down.
But tailwinds are building:
Lower gas prices putting money back in wallets
Tax refunds from the new bill could boost spending
FIFA World Cup coming to the U.S. this summer — a major traffic driver
Fast-growing chains like Raising Cane's (118 openings last year), Jersey Mike's, Shake Shack, and Cavacontinue aggressive expansion
The demand for well-located retail space from restaurants and QSR remains very real.
💡 The Takeaway for CRE Investors
1. The consumer is still in the game — but under pressure. Value-oriented tenants (discount grocery, off-price, QSR) will outperform. Full-price discretionary could face headwinds.
2. Retail space is tightening. Openings up, closures down, new construction limited. Well-located strip centers and grocery-anchored retail are in a strong position. Bankruptcy backfill from 2024-2025 is creating real leasing velocity.
3. Watch the data — but fly your own instruments. Government shutdowns have created data gaps. Don't wait for official reports. Talk to your tenants, watch your collections, and pay attention to foot traffic in your markets.
🎥 Watch the Video
Catch the full Retail Weekend Wrap-Up video breakdown here:
📞 Want a 1:1 Look at Your Center?
If you want a clearer understanding of where your strip center stands today — or what opportunities you might be missing — feel free to reach out.
I’d be more than happy to walk through it with you.
👋 Until Next Week
Thanks for reading. You’re always welcome to reach out with any questions or anything you need to better understand your investment. I’m here to help you make well-informed decisions with confidence.
— Ray Kang CCIM
Strip Center Investment Sales & Advisory