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Retail Weekend Wrap-Up
👋 Hey there,
Quick one this week, but an important one if you're financing anything in the next few months.
Investment Opportunity
±68,000 SF Multi-tenant Retail Center
Transitional Value-Add Opportunity
Contractual Rent Growth In-Place
Heavy Lease Control w/ MTM Flexibility
Attractive Entry Basis Relative to Replacement Cost
Clear Repositioning Map
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🏛️ Warsh's First Fight
Wednesday, the Fed released the minutes from Kevin Warsh's very first meeting as chairman. The headline vote was boring — 12-0 to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%. But buried in the minutes: a few officials actually pushed to hike right then. They didn't win, but the fact that the argument got made tells you where the committee's head is. Inflation concern is building even as the labor market cools (Federal Reserve, Bloomberg).
Warsh also cut the post-meeting statement to just 130 words and stripped out forward guidance entirely — then announced five task forces to review how the Fed operates. Translation: he's not going to tell you what's next. Plan for a range of outcomes, not a bet on a single path.
📈 Why Your Loan Quote Moved
The 10-year Treasury opened the month at 4.49%. By Thursday it touched 4.58% — a seven-week high — before easing to 4.54–4.56% by Friday (Trading Economics, Advisor Perspectives). The driver isn't the Fed directly — it's the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. carried out a second straight day of strikes on Iran this week, and crude jumped back above $73/barrel. Energy-driven inflation fear moves long yields first.
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⛽ Gas Prices Reverse — But We're Still Winning
After falling steadily since late May, the national gas average ticked back up 5 cents to $3.84 this week as the ceasefire looked shakier (AAA). Texas is still sitting near the cheapest gas in the country — $3.41–3.42 — a real cost-of-living edge for shoppers at your centers compared to, say, California at $5.38.
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Investment Opportunity
Starlight Oaks Shopping Center | San Antonio, TX
Neighborhood Strip Center in northwest San Antonio (Shavano Woods)
Significant Embedded NOI Growth
Affluent, Demand-Driven Trade Area
Diversified, Service-Oriented Tenancy
Compelling Owner/User Play
Work with Ray Kang
“Ray demonstrated professionalism and expertise in presenting us with an option and feasible strategy to boost the value of one of our assets. He effectively maintained engagement among all involved parties, leading to a successful and positive result. Ray is a pleasure to work with!”
~Jeff B., President
💰 The Deal Math
10-year at ~4.56% + a typical retail strip center lender spread (175–225 bps) = a loan rate somewhere between 6.31% and 6.81%. That's not a narrow band. On a $5 million loan, the gap between the low and high end is real monthly debt service, and it flows straight through to your DCR and cash-on-cash return. If you're underwriting a refi or purchase right now, run it at both ends — not just the number your lender quotes today.
🎯 CRE Takeaway
Warsh removed forward guidance on purpose — plan financing around a range, not a bet.
Re-run your DCR at 6.5%+ before assuming a refi pencils.
Texas's fuel cost edge is a real, quantifiable talking point for buyers evaluating trade area strength.
If you own a strip center in San Antonio, Austin, or the Rio Grande Valley and want to talk through what this means for your specific property — reach out. That's exactly the kind of conversation I have with clients every week.
That’s your Retail Weekend Wrap-Up for the week ending July 11, 2026. Every source linked above is a primary government, trade authority or verified news outlet — no spin, no aggregators. Go read them yourself.
Own retail or office property? Hit me up — I'm happy to talk through what any of this means for your specific situation.
I sell commercial property with RESOLUT RE (www.resolutre.com)
Until next week,
Ray Kang CCIM | [email protected] | (512) 400-5950
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